Martingale: isiphetho sokuphinda kabili ngamanani
Phinda kabili ukubheja emva kokulahlekelwa ngakunye, ubuyele ekubhejeni okuyisisekelo emva kokunqoba. I-Martingale ithembisa inzuzo encane “engenakuhluleka”. Nansi into eyenzayo ekubhejeni okungu-2x, lapho ithandwa khona kakhulu.
Ikusebenza kanjani ku-2x
Uchungechunge ngalunye luphela ekunqobeni kokuqala, futhi uchungechunge olunqobiwe luthola ukubheja okuyisisekelo okukodwa: ukunqoba kubuyisa zonke izilahleko zochungechunge kanye nokubheja okuyisisekelo. Ngokubheja okuyisisekelo okungu-1, ukubheja kuba ngu-1, 2, 4, 8… futhi ukulahlekelwa okuyishumi kulandelana kusho ukulahlekelwa 1,023 ukuze unqobe u-1.
| Ijikelezo ochungechungeni | Bheja | Isamba esilahlekile uma lokhu kulahleka nakho | Amathuba okulahlekelwa ejikelezweni ngalinye kuze kube manje |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 51.5% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 26.5% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 13.7% |
| 4 | 8 | 15 | 7.03% |
| 5 | 16 | 31 | 3.62% |
| 6 | 32 | 63 | 1.87% |
| 7 | 64 | 127 | 0.96% |
| 8 | 128 | 255 | 0.49% |
| 9 | 256 | 511 | 0.25% |
| 10 | 512 | 1,023 | 0.13% |
Inkinga: ayivamile, kodwa ayivamile ngokwanele
Uchungechunge olulodwa luphela cishe njalo ngokunqoba okuncane, okwenza inhlelo izizwe iphephile. Kodwa uchungechunge luhlala imijikelezo engaba 2 ngokwesilinganiso, ngakho umdlali udlula kumakhulu awo ebusuku. Ngemijikelezo engu-1,000, amathuba okuhlangana nochungechunge lokulahlekelwa oluyishumi angu-47%, futhi uma kufika, kusula ukunqoba okungaba yinkulungwane kwangaphambilini.
Kungani ingakwazi ukunqoba inzuzo yendlu
Uchungechunge olujwayelekile ku-2x lubheja cishe amayunithi ayisisekelo angu-11.5 esewonke futhi lalahlekelwa amayunithi angu-0.34 ngokwesilinganiso: okungukuthi −3% kwemali ebhejiwe. I-Martingale ayishintshi isilinganiso. Ihlela kabusha imiphumela ibe ukunqoba okuncane okuningi nokulahlekelwa okukodwa okukhulu okungavamile.
Imali yokudlala nemikhawulo yetafula kwenza kube mbi kakhudlwana
Ukuze uphile ukulahlekelwa okuyishumi ku-2x udinga izikhathi ezingu-1,023 zokubheja kwakho okuyisisekelo, konke ukuze unqobe ukubheja okukodwa okuyisisekelo ngesikhathi. Imidlalo yangempela iphinde ibeke umkhawulo wokubheja okuphezulu, okunciphisa isitebhisi. Uma ungakwazi ukubeka ukuphindaphinda okulandelayo, ukulahlekelwa kuyaboshwa.
Isibali somthetho wengozi ye-Martingale
Isibali
Kuzinhloso ezingezona u-2x, ukubheja kumele kukhule ngokushesha noma kancane ukuze kubuyiselwe imali elahlekile: ngokuhlukanisa inhloso ngo-(inhloso − 1) ngesinyathelo, okungu-×3 ku-1.5x kanye no-×1.11 ku-10x. Isilinganiso sokulahlekelwa sihlala singu-3% sawo wonke umali ebhejiwe.
Ezinye izinhlelo zokukhula
- Grand Martingale yengeza iyunithi eyengeziwe ekuphindaphindeni ngakunye: ukukhula okusheshayo, isitebhisi esikhulu, isilinganiso esifanayo.
- Reverse Martingale (Paroli) iphindaphinda emva kokunqoba esikhundleni sokulahlekelwa: uchungechunge olukhulu olungavamile, ukulahlekelwa okuncane okuvamile, isilinganiso esifanayo.
- D’Alembert yengeza iyunithi eyodwa emva kokulahlekelwa futhi isuse eyodwa emva kokunqoba: ukuguquguquka okuncane, isilinganiso esifanayo.
- Fibonacci ilandela uchungechunge lwe-Fibonacci emva kokulahlekelwa: i-Martingale ethobile, isilinganiso esifanayo.
Ungaqhuba i-Martingale, i-D’Alembert ne-Paroli ku-Crash Lab bese ubona isilinganiso sifika ku-−3% womali ebhejiwe njalo.
Imibuzo
Kwenzekani uma ngima ngemuva kokunqoba kanye?
Imithetho yokuma ishintsha isikhathi sokudlala esiphela ngaphambi kwesikhathi; ayishintshi isilinganiso sokulahlekelwa semibhejo oyibekayo. Ezikhathini eziningi zokudlala, umphumela usahlala ungu-−3% womali ephelele ebhejiwe.
Kwenzekani uma benginamali engapheli?
Akekho onayo, futhi wonke umdlalo ubeka umkhawulo kubukhulu bokubheja. Ngisho nethiyori, imali yokudlala engapheli ibingozama kuphela ukubeka izamba ezinkulu ngokukhula ukuze wini ukubheja okuyisisekelo kanye ngasikhathi sinye.
Kusebenza kangcono yini ngenhloso ephansi njengo-1.5x?
Akunjalo. Ku-1.5x, ukulahlekelwa ngakunye kumele kulandelwe ukubheja okukhulu kathathu, ngakho isitebhisi sikhula ngokushesha okukhulu. Isilinganiso sihlala sifana.