Martingale: chitetezo cha kuwonjezera ndalama m'njira ya manambala
Onjezerani ndalama zoyika pambuyo pa kutaya konse, bwererani ku ndalama zoyika zoyambirira pambuyo pa kupambana. Martingale imalonjeza phindu laling'ono lomwe “silingatayike”. Tawonani momwe imachitira pa cholinga cha kutenga phindu cha 2x, komwe ndi yotchuka kwambiri.
Momwe imagwira ntchiri pa 2x
Mzere uliwonse umathera pa kupambana koyamba, ndipo mzere uliwonse wopambana umapeza ndalama zoyika zoyambirira zokha: kupambana kumabweza kutaya konse kwa mzerewo ndi ndalama zoyika zoyambirira. Ndi ndalama zoyika zoyambirira za 1, ndalama zoyika zimayenda 1, 2, 4, 8… ndipo kutaya khumi motsatizana kumatanthauza kutaya 1,023 kuti mupeze 1.
| Gawo mu mndandanda | Kupambana | Zotayika zonse ngati izi zitayikanso | Mwayi woti mutaye gawo lililonse mpaka pano |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 51.5% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 26.5% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 13.7% |
| 4 | 8 | 15 | 7.03% |
| 5 | 16 | 31 | 3.62% |
| 6 | 32 | 63 | 1.87% |
| 7 | 64 | 127 | 0.96% |
| 8 | 128 | 255 | 0.49% |
| 9 | 256 | 511 | 0.25% |
| 10 | 512 | 1,023 | 0.13% |
Chovuta: chosowa, koma osati chosowa mokwanira
Mzere umodzi pafupifupi nthawi zonse umathera ndi kupambana kochepa, ndiye chomwe chimachititsa kuti njirayo izindikire ngati yotetezeka. Koma mzere umakhala kwa magawo 2 pafupifupi, choncho msewera amadutsa mizere yambiri mu madzulo. Pa magawo 1,000, mwayi wokumana ndi kutsatizana kwa kupambana khumi ndi 47%, ndipo pomwe kumachitika kumachotsa pafupifupi kupambana khumi ndi zana zoyambirira.
Chifukwa chake sitha kupambana phindu la m'nyumba
Mzere wapakati pa 2x umayika pafupifupi 11.5 mayunitsi a ndalama zoyika zoyambirira pafupifupi ndipo umataya 0.34 mayunitsi pafupifupi: ndi −3% ya zomwe zinayikidwa. Martingale siisintha pafupifupi. Imasinthira zotsatira kukhala kupambana kochepa kochuluka ndi kutaya kamodzi kokha, koma kolimba kwambiri.
Ndalama zosungira ndi malire a tebulo zimapangitsa kuti zikhale zovuta
Kuti mupeze kutaya khumi pa 2x mukufunika 1,023 nthawi za ndalama zanu zoyika zoyambirira, zonse kuti mupeze ndalama zoyika zoyambirira imodzi nthawi imodzi. Masewera enieni amakhala ndi malire a ndalama zoyika zokulirapo, zomwe zimachepetsa njira yowonjezera. Mukangalephera kuyika ndalama zoyika zotsatira, kutaya kumakhala kotsekeka.
Chosimulira cha chiopsezo cha Martingale
Chosimulira
Pazolinga zosiyana ndi 2x, ndalama zoyika ziyenera kukula mwachangu kapena pang'onopang'ono kuti zibwezeretse zotayika: ndi cholinga ÷ (cholinga − 1) pa sitepe iliyonse, zomwe ndi ×3 pa 1.5x ndi ×1.11 pa 10x. Mtengo wapakati umakhala 3% wa ndalama zonse zoyika.
Njira zina zopambanira
- Grand Martingale imawonjezera gawo limodzi pa kuonjezera konse: kukula mwachangu, sitepe yayikulu, mtengo wapakati womwewo.
- Reverse Martingale (Paroli) imawonjezera pambuyo pophunzira: mizere yayikulu yosowa, zotayika zazing'ono zofanana, mtengo wapakati womwewo.
- D’Alembert imawonjezera gawo limodzi pambuyo pokhala ndi zotayika ndikuchotsa limodzi pambuyo pophunzira: kusintha pang'onopang'ono, mtengo wapakati womwewo.
- Fibonacci imatsatira njira ya Fibonacci pambuyo pophunzira: Martingale yofewa, mtengo wapakati womwewo.
Mutha kuyendetsa Martingale, D’Alembert ndi Paroli mu Crash Lab ndikuona kuti mtengo wapakati umakhala −3% wa ndalama zoyika nthawi iliyonse.
Mafunso
Ndi chiyani ngati ndikima pambuyo pophunzira kamodzi?
Malamulo oima amasintha nthawi zosewera zomwe zimalira mwachangu; sizisintha mtengo wapakati wa ndalama zomwe mwayika. Pa nthawi zambiri zosewera, zotsatira zikhalabe −3% ya ndalama zonse zoyika.
Ndi chiyani ngati ndakhala ndi ndalama zopanda malire?
Palibe amene ali nazo, ndipo masewera onse amalemera kukula kwa ndalama zoyika. Ngakhale malinga, ndalama zosungira zopanda malire zingakhale zokha zikuopa ndalama zokulirapo kuti zipeze phindu limodzi la maziko nthawi imodzi.
Kodi imagwira ntchito bwino ndi cholinga chochepa monga 1.5x?
Ayi. Pa 1.5x, zotayika iliyonse iyenera kutsatiridwa ndi ndalama zoyika zokulirapo katatu, choncho sitepe imakula mwachangu kwambiri. Mtengo wapakati umakhala womwewo.