Martingale: isithiyo sokuphinda-phinda kwamanani
Phinda-phinda ibheji emva kokuphulukana nganye, buyela kwibheji esisiseko emva kokuphumelela. I-Martingale ithembisa inzuzo encinci “engenakusilela”. Nantsi into eyenza kwinjongo ye-2x, apho ithandwa kakhulu.
Indlela esebenza ngayo kwi-2x
Uthotho ngalunye luphela kwimpumelelo yokuqala, kwaye uthotho ngalunye oliphumeleleyo lufumana ibheji esisiseko enye: impumelelo ihlawula zonke ilahleko kuthotho kunye nebheji esisiseko. Ngebheji esisiseko ye-1, iibheji ziya ku-1, 2, 4, 8… kwaye ilahleko ezili-10 ngokulandelelana zithetha ukuba 1 023 ilahlekile ukuze uphumelele u-1.
| Ijikelezo kuthotho | Ibheji | Ilahleko iyonke ukuba le nanye iphulukana nayo | Amathuba okuphulukana nejikelezo nganye ukuya koku |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 51.5% |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 26.5% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 13.7% |
| 4 | 8 | 15 | 7.03% |
| 5 | 16 | 31 | 3.62% |
| 6 | 32 | 63 | 1.87% |
| 7 | 64 | 127 | 0.96% |
| 8 | 128 | 255 | 0.49% |
| 9 | 256 | 511 | 0.25% |
| 10 | 512 | 1 023 | 0.13% |
Isithiyo: aqhelekile, kodwa awaqhelekanga ngokwaneleyo
Uthotho olunye luphela ngokuphumelela okuncinci phantse rhoqo, nto leyo eyenza inkqubo ibonakale ikhuselekile. Kodwa uthotho luhlala malunga neejikelezo ezi-2 kuphela ngokomndilili, ngoko umdlali udlula kwiikhulu zazo ngexesha lomhlana. Kwiijikelezo eziyi-1,000, amathuba okuhlangabezana nothotho lokuphulukana olulishumi ngama-47%, kwaye xa luvela, luyacima malunga neenkulungwane zophumelelo lwangaphambili.
Kutheni ingakwazi ukoyisa inzuzo yendlu
Uthotho olumiselweyo kwi-2x lubeka iiyunithi eziyi-11.5 zesiseko zizonke kwaye liphulukana neeyunithi eziyi-0.34 ngokumiselweyo: ngokuchanekileyo −3% yoko bekubekiwe. I-Martingale ayitshintshi umyinge. Ilungisa iziphumo zibe ziimpumelelo ezininzi ezincinci kunye nelahleko enye enkulu kakhulu engaqhelekanga.
Imali yebhanki nemida yetheyibhile yenza ibe mbi
Ukuze uphile ilahleko ezili-10 kwi-2x udinga amaxesha ayi-1 023 ebheji yakho esisiseko, zonke ukuze uphumelele ibheji esisiseko enye ngexesha. Imidlalo yokwenyani iphinde ithimbele ibheji ephezulu, ephelisa uluhlu lwezigaba. Xa ungakwazi ukubeka iphinda-phindo elilandelayo, ilahleko ibekiwe.
Isibali somngcipheko we-Martingale
Isibali
Kwiinjongo ezingeyiyo i-2x, ibheji kufuneka ikhule ngokukhawuleza okanye ngokucotha ukuze ibuyise ilahleko: ngokwe injongo ÷ (injongo − 1) kwinyathelo ngalinye, oku kuthetha ukuba yi-×3 kwi-1.5x kunye ne-×1.11 kwi-10x. Ixabiso eliphakathi lihlala liyi-3% yayo yonke imali ebekiweyo.
Ezinye iinkqubo zokubheja
- Grand Martingale yongeza iyunithi eyongezelelweyo kwiphindaphindo nganye: ukukhula okukhawulezayo, ithanga likhulu, kodwa ixabiso eliphakathi liyafana.
- Reverse Martingale (Paroli) iphindaphinda emva kokuphumelela endaweni yoko: uthotho olukhulu olungaqhelekanga, ilahleko encinci eqhelekileyo, kodwa ixabiso eliphakathi liyafana.
- D’Alembert yongeza iyunithi enye emva kokuphulukana kwaye isuse enye emva kokuphumelela: ukunyuka okucothayo, kodwa ixabiso eliphakathi liyafana.
- Fibonacci ilandela ulandelelwano lweFibonacci emva kokuphulukana: yiMartingale ethambileyo, kodwa ixabiso eliphakathi liyafana.
Unokusebenzisa iMartingale, iD’Alembert kunye neParoli kwi Crash Lab uze ubone ixabiso eliphakathi lihlala liyi −3% yemali ebekiweyo rhoqo.
Imibuzo
Yintoni ukuba ndiyeka emva kokuphumelela kanye?
Imithetho yokuyeka itshintsha iseshoni eziphelisa ngokukhawuleza; azitshintshi ixabiso eliphakathi leeheji ozibekayo. Emva kweseshoni ezininzi, isiphumo sihlala siyi −3% yemali iyonke ebekiweyo.
Yintoni ukuba bendinembali engapheliyo?
Akukho mntu unayo, kwaye yonke imidlalo ibeka umda kubungakanani bebheji. Nokuba ngokwethiyori, imali yebhanki engapheliyo ibingazambelela nje izambuku ezinkulu ngakumbi ukuze iphumelele ibheji esisiseko enye ngexesha.
Ingasebenza ngcono ngenjongo ephantsi njenge-1.5x?
Ayisebenzi. Kwi-1.5x, ilahleko nganye kufuneka ilandelwe yibheji ephindwe kathathu, ngoko ithanga likhula ngokukhawuleza kakhulu. Ixabiso eliphakathi lihlala lifana.